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RBA Monetary Policy Analysis & Portfolio Strategy

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Oil Price (Brent)
--
--
ASX 200
--
--
AUD/USD
--
--
RBA Cash Rate
4.35%
Current Rate

RBA Hike Probability

65%
Hike Scenario
65%
+25bp → 4.60%
Pause Scenario
30%
Hold at 4.35%
Compromise
5%
Hike then done

Inflation Breakdown

Pre-Oil CPI
3.8-4.2%
Oil Shock Impact
+1.0-1.5%
Total Inflation
4.8-5.7%
RBA Target
2.0-3.0%

📊 Portfolio Strategy (65% Hike Scenario)

🔴 SHORT Positions

CBA.AX
Commonwealth Bank
$--
--
WBC.AX
Westpac
$--
--
NAB.AX
National Australia Bank
$--
--
Rationale: Mortgage stress + rate hike = loan defaults. Expected -3-5%.

🟢 LONG Positions

BHP.AX
BHP Group
$--
--
RIO.AX
Rio Tinto
$--
--
WDS.AX
Woodside Energy
$--
--
Rationale: Commodity boom + exporters benefit despite AUD strength. Expected +0.6%.

🛡️ Downside Hedge

ASX 200 Puts (3-month, 5% OTM)
Cost: 1-2% of portfolio | Protects against -2-3% market drop

⚠️ Triggers for RBA PAUSE (30%)

  • • Oil falls to $65-70 (Iran deal, Hormuz opens)
  • • CPI surprise lower (next release)
  • • Housing data weakens (mortgage defaults spike)
  • • Employment softens (unemployment rises to 4%+)

🚨 Triggers for AGGRESSIVE HIKE (5%)

  • • Inflation surprise HIGHER (6%+)
  • • AUD collapses (capital flight)
  • • Global central banks stay hawkish (Fed, ECB hike)

⚠️ Not financial advice. Position size accordingly. RBA decisions are binary events.

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